According to @BullTheoryio, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI printed 47.9, a 14-month low and below the 48.4 consensus. According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), a PMI below 50 signals contraction in manufacturing activity. According to @BullTheoryio, the ongoing downtrend suggests risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto may struggle to gain sustained bullish momentum until PMI rises back above 50.

According to @BullTheoryio, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for November printed 48.2, signaling continued contraction per the Institute for Supply Management’s November 2025 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business and ISM’s methodology that classifies readings below 50 as contraction. The last two major altcoin runs coincided with ISM readings above 55 in 2017 and 2021, as evidenced by ISM historical PMI data and the surge in crypto market cap ex-BTC on TradingView’s TOTAL2 series during those periods. With PMI still sub-50, a prudent approach is to prioritize liquidity in majors like BTC and ETH and wait for a sustained PMI move back above 50 and toward 55 as allocation triggers, using ISM’s monthly releases and market breadth confirmation on TradingView. This framing keeps risk aligned with macro momentum, anchored to ISM data and cross-checked against historical crypto cycle behavior on TradingView.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the ISM Manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.4 points in October to 48.7, the lowest since July (source: @KobeissiLetter; source: Institute for Supply Management). This marks the eighth consecutive monthly contraction in the headline PMI, remaining below the 50 threshold (source: @KobeissiLetter; source: Institute for Supply Management). New Orders printed 49.4 and stayed in contraction for the eighth month out of the last nine (source: @KobeissiLetter; source: Institute for Supply Management). The Employment Index came in at 46.0, posting a ninth straight monthly contraction (source: @KobeissiLetter; source: Institute for Supply Management). Prices Paid fell 3.9 points to 58.0, the fourth consecutive monthly decline, suggesting weakening demand is easing cost pressures (source: @KobeissiLetter; source: Institute for Supply Management). ISM notes that readings below 50 indicate contraction in manufacturing activity, reinforcing the contractionary signal across headline, new orders, and employment (source: Institute for Supply Management).